Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.1%). Look for Hintz on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Hintz wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hintz 53.8% vs Hertl 54.1% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Hintz leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 65.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Hintz
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Hintz
Hertl
Last 10: Hintz 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hintz
5
1
Hintz
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Hintz
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Hintz
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hintz
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,706)
53.6% (8,077)
+0.2%
Power Play
54.8% (555)
59.7% (1,916)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (221)
46.0% (793)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Hintz has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hintz is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,764).
Hintz shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,755).
Home / Away
Hintz
Hertl
Home
54.8% (2,289)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
52.9% (2,193)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Hintz
Hertl
P1
55.4%
53.6%
P2
53.8%
53.9%
P3
52.7%
55.1%
OT
48.6%
46.8%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hintz
70.0%▲
61.5%
53.9%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 19:14 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:07 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:54 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Roope Hintz |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |