Scouting Report
Rourke Chartier holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Chartier wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Chartier 51.5% vs Poehling 49.2% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 58.9%
Defensive zone
Poehling 57.2%
Neutral zone
Poehling 54.6%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Chartier
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Chartier
Poehling
Last 6: Chartier 2-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Chartier
1
0
Chartier
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
2
Chartier
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Chartier
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Chartier
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (225)
50.4% (752)
+3.8%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
37.0% (27)
+38.0%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (67)
45.3% (159)
-2.0%
On power play, Chartier has a +38.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Chartier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Chartier shoots left. Poehling is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Home / Away
Chartier
Poehling
Home
49.5% (202)
51.2% (467)
Away
57.4% (94)
47.1% (471)
By Period
Chartier
Poehling
P1
51.6%
54.6%
P2
49.5%
46.7%
P3
54.6%
46.7%
Final 5 min
51.3%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Chartier
60.0%▲
50.5%
52.0%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 02:11 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 02:04 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:37 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Rourke Chartier |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Rourke Chartier |