Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 85.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 57.1%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 62.8%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Kastelic
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kastelic
Carpenter
Last 6: Kastelic 4-2 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Carpenter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
48.8% (404)
+4.6%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
100.0% (1)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
43.6% (101)
+31.4%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Kastelic is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Kastelic shoots right. Carpenter is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Carpenter
Home
56.2% (162)
48.9% (274)
Away
52.9% (187)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Kastelic
Carpenter
P1
58.2%
51.9%
P2
58.8%
49.4%
P3
45.4%
41.8%
Final 5 min
59.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:54 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:29 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |