Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Hartman 45.3% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 67.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 72.0%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 59.2%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Carpenter
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Carpenter
Hartman
Last 10: Carpenter 6-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
5
Carpenter
Hartman
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
0
Carpenter
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
0
Carpenter
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
45.2% (4,235)
+4.4%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
47.4% (443)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
42.4% (262)
+1.5%
On power play, Hartman has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Carpenter is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (695).
Carpenter shoots right. Hartman is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,381).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Hartman
Home
51.2% (1,290)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
43.6% (2,351)
By Period
Carpenter
Hartman
P1
49.6%
46.0%
P2
47.7%
42.9%
P3
48.0%
46.8%
OT
55.6%
53.8%
Final 5 min
49.6%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:14 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 17:12 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 14:08 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:45 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |