Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Monahan 51.3% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 82.5%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 75.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Carpenter
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
11
(23 meetings)
12
11
Carpenter
Monahan
Last 10: Carpenter 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Carpenter
Monahan
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
6
4
Carpenter
Monahan
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Carpenter
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
51.1% (11,356)
-1.5%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
53.7% (2,580)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
46.0% (766)
-2.1%
On power play, Monahan has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Carpenter shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Monahan
Home
51.2% (1,290)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Carpenter
Monahan
P1
49.6%
50.9%
P2
47.7%
51.7%
P3
48.0%
51.0%
OT
55.6%
53.5%
Final 5 min
49.6%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 11:17 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 12:34 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 23, 2021 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 12:44 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 09:24 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 05:26 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |