Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.2% vs Monahan 54.5% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 90.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 59.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 70.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 68.7%
31.3%
68.7%
Carpenter
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Carpenter
Monahan
Last 10: Carpenter 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Carpenter
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
5
2
Carpenter
Monahan
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (404)
57.1% (871)
-8.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
53.1% (262)
+46.9%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (101)
44.6% (139)
-1.0%
On power play, Carpenter has a +46.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Carpenter shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Monahan
Home
48.9% (274)
55.3% (644)
Away
46.6% (232)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Carpenter
Monahan
P1
51.9%
53.9%
P2
49.4%
55.3%
P3
41.8%
54.4%
OT
100.0%
76.5%
Final 5 min
50.4%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 11:17 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 12:34 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |