Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Donato 47.8% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 94.8%
Defensive zone
Frost 81.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 89.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 89.6%
89.6%
10.4%
Frost
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Frost
Donato
Last 6: Frost 5-1 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (686)
47.8% (255)
+7.2%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
41.7% (36)
+19.1%
On power play, Frost has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Frost is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Frost shoots left. Donato is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Frost
Donato
Home
56.1% (428)
44.9% (138)
Away
56.6% (429)
49.0% (153)
By Period
Frost
Donato
P1
58.9%
47.4%
P2
55.4%
46.6%
P3
54.1%
46.2%
OT
70.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.0%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:04 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 16:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 10:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |