Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Donato wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 44.9% vs Wright 43.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 61.0%
Defensive zone
Wright 53.7%
Neutral zone
Donato 52.4%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Donato
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Donato
Wright
Last 9: Donato 5-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
2
1
Donato
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Donato
Wright
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Donato
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,179)
42.6% (1,318)
+1.6%
Power Play
46.3% (246)
45.8% (131)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
33.3% (6)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Donato is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (547).
Donato shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
Donato
Wright
Home
47.2% (743)
44.2% (746)
Away
41.6% (693)
41.5% (709)
By Period
Donato
Wright
P1
43.4%
44.4%
P2
45.1%
40.7%
P3
44.4%
44.0%
OT
70.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Shane Wright |