Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Greene wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 45.0% vs Hertl 57.2% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Greene leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 96.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 81.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Greene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Greene
Hertl
Last 10: Greene 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Greene
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
5
2
Greene
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greene
2
0
Greene
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (506)
58.1% (823)
-14.0%
Power Play
47.5% (59)
56.2% (265)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (149)
62.9% (35)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greene is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Greene shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Greene
Hertl
Home
47.4% (382)
59.7% (561)
Away
40.7% (332)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Greene
Hertl
P1
47.2%
51.6%
P2
39.0%
63.8%
P3
47.0%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
43.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:47 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |