Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Greene wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 44.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Greene leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 71.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 80.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.0%
23.0%
77.0%
Greene
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Greene
Hertl
Last 10: Greene 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Greene
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
5
2
Greene
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greene
2
0
Greene
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (524)
53.8% (8,268)
-10.1%
Power Play
47.5% (59)
59.3% (1,975)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (149)
46.3% (806)
-2.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greene is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Greene shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Greene
Hertl
Home
47.4% (382)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
40.3% (350)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Greene
Hertl
P1
46.4%
53.6%
P2
38.9%
54.1%
P3
47.0%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
42.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:47 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |