Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Johansen 58.2% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 60.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 80.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 67.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
McDavid
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McDavid
Johansen
Last 7: McDavid 2-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
McDavid
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
3
McDavid
Johansen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
59.8% (625)
-8.3%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
58.2% (196)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
51.9% (27)
-0.7%
On even strength, Johansen has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
McDavid
Johansen
Home
50.7% (513)
60.3% (436)
Away
53.2% (498)
58.0% (412)
By Period
McDavid
Johansen
P1
52.3%
61.3%
P2
51.6%
60.4%
P3
51.7%
56.0%
OT
100.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
56.5%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 04:51 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 15:16 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:49 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:34 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |