Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Johansen 58.2% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 82.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 85.3%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 50.7%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 68.7%
31.3%
68.7%
Kastelic
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kastelic
Johansen
Last 5: Kastelic 2-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
3
Kastelic
Johansen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
59.8% (625)
-1.8%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
58.2% (196)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
51.9% (27)
-1.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Kastelic shoots right. Johansen is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Johansen
Home
64.9% (265)
60.3% (436)
Away
50.5% (325)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Kastelic
Johansen
P1
58.5%
61.3%
P2
55.6%
60.4%
P3
56.8%
56.0%
Final 5 min
62.6%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 3 | 19:28 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 2 | 15:28 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 10, 2022 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |