Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Johansen 58.2% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 84.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 62.9%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Dowd
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Dowd
Johansen
Last 7: Dowd 2-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Dowd
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Dowd
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (625)
59.8% (625)
-4.6%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
58.2% (196)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (220)
51.9% (27)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Dowd shoots right. Johansen is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Dowd
Johansen
Home
53.7% (445)
60.3% (436)
Away
47.7% (407)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Dowd
Johansen
P1
48.8%
61.3%
P2
49.3%
60.4%
P3
54.0%
56.0%
OT
44.4%
56.3%
Final 5 min
49.8%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:03 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 09:52 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 12:23 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |