Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs Johansen 58.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 64.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 82.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 70.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Paul
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Paul
Johansen
Last 10: Paul 2-8 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
5
Paul
Johansen
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
3
Paul
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
59.8% (625)
-6.0%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
58.2% (196)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
51.9% (27)
-4.5%
On even strength, Johansen has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Paul shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Paul
Johansen
Home
54.2% (450)
60.3% (436)
Away
53.3% (471)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Paul
Johansen
P1
58.2%
61.3%
P2
50.6%
60.4%
P3
52.9%
56.0%
OT
50.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 15:54 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |