Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Johansen wins 56.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 58.2% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 53.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 53.8%
Neutral zone
Johansen 50.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Johansen
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Johansen
Stamkos
Last 6: Johansen 3-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
3
Johansen
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
0
Johansen
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (625)
55.3% (628)
+4.5%
Power Play
58.2% (196)
55.1% (216)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (27)
40.2% (87)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Johansen is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Johansen shoots right. Stamkos is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Johansen
Stamkos
Home
60.3% (436)
55.5% (499)
Away
58.0% (412)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Johansen
Stamkos
P1
61.3%
50.7%
P2
60.4%
53.8%
P3
56.0%
55.9%
OT
56.3%
87.5%
Final 5 min
55.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 02:57 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:00 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 10:26 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 19:00 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |