Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Johansen wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 52.8% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 82.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 60.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 80.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
Johansen
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Johansen
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
4
0
Johansen
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (597)
55.9% (499)
-4.0%
Power Play
57.9% (133)
56.3% (126)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (81)
58.3% (12)
-4.0%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Johansen shoots right. Stamkos is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (151).
Home / Away
Johansen
Stamkos
Home
55.8% (387)
55.3% (349)
Away
50.7% (424)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Johansen
Stamkos
P1
50.0%
57.0%
P2
56.2%
59.2%
P3
52.6%
51.5%
OT
75.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
54.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |