Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Johansen wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 52.2% vs Hertl 54.9% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 82.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 80.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.6%
22.4%
77.6%
Johansen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Johansen
Hertl
Last 9: Johansen 7-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
1
Johansen
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
0
Johansen
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
3
1
Johansen
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (1,006)
55.0% (382)
-3.1%
Power Play
56.0% (207)
59.7% (67)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (33)
75.0% (8)
-32.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +32.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Johansen is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (856).
Johansen shoots right. Hertl is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Johansen
Hertl
Home
56.4% (633)
58.8% (221)
Away
48.1% (613)
53.4% (236)
By Period
Johansen
Hertl
P1
51.4%
52.6%
P2
52.9%
53.6%
P3
51.7%
62.4%
OT
84.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
61.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2015 | 3 | 15:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 07:25 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 1 | 11:39 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 1 | 08:17 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |