Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Johansen wins 60.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 58.2% vs Hertl 54.5% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 62.3%
Defensive zone
Johansen 62.8%
Neutral zone
Johansen 65.3%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Johansen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
4
(15 meetings)
11
4
Johansen
Hertl
Last 10: Johansen 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Johansen
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
0
Johansen
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
7
1
Johansen
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (625)
54.1% (1,117)
+5.7%
Power Play
58.2% (196)
59.8% (296)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (27)
34.4% (32)
+17.5%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Johansen shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Johansen
Hertl
Home
60.3% (436)
54.3% (709)
Away
58.0% (412)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Johansen
Hertl
P1
61.3%
51.6%
P2
60.4%
53.6%
P3
56.0%
58.6%
OT
56.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
55.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:40 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 00:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 2 | 02:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |