Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.5%). Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 52.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 67.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 56.3%
Neutral zone
Johansen 50.8%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Johansen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
11
(19 meetings)
8
11
Johansen
Hertl
Last 10: Johansen 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
5
2
Johansen
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Johansen
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Johansen
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (1,010)
51.6% (1,084)
-2.2%
Power Play
62.3% (236)
61.0% (246)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
67.2% (67)
44.1% (136)
+23.1%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Johansen is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Johansen shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Johansen
Hertl
Home
54.7% (655)
55.2% (696)
Away
50.6% (658)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Johansen
Hertl
P1
52.2%
55.4%
P2
50.7%
54.8%
P3
54.8%
48.9%
OT
53.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:09 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 14:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 15:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 2 | 06:25 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 2 | 00:16 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 04:08 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 01:20 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |