Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs McLeod 52.1% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 62.9%
Defensive zone
McLeod 84.3%
Neutral zone
McLeod 66.3%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Barkov
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Barkov
McLeod
Last 5: Barkov 1-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
2
Barkov
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Barkov
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
52.9% (904)
+2.6%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
57.6% (59)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
49.0% (241)
-2.3%
On power play, Barkov has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Barkov
McLeod
Home
56.4% (550)
51.8% (612)
Away
56.7% (476)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Barkov
McLeod
P1
56.5%
55.4%
P2
55.5%
50.8%
P3
57.9%
51.6%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:47 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 16:44 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |