Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.3%). Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs McLeod 52.1% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 68.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 50.2%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
McLeod
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Nelson
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Nelson
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Nelson
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.9% (904)
-1.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
57.6% (59)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
49.0% (241)
+2.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
52.5% (590)
51.8% (612)
Away
51.7% (619)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
50.5%
55.4%
P2
54.4%
50.8%
P3
51.4%
51.6%
OT
47.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:10 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |