Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs McLeod 49.6% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 16-5 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 85.2%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 92.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 85.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Carlsson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
16
(21 meetings)
5
16
Carlsson
McLeod
Last 10: Carlsson 2-8 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Carlsson
McLeod
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
5
Carlsson
McLeod
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
8
Carlsson
McLeod
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
50.4% (3,345)
-9.4%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
51.0% (292)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
44.3% (635)
-9.3%
On even strength, McLeod has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Carlsson
McLeod
Home
42.2% (1,044)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Carlsson
McLeod
P1
43.3%
50.8%
P2
36.5%
48.4%
P3
43.2%
50.0%
OT
40.7%
37.1%
Final 5 min
40.0%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:57 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:37 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:59 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 09:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 14:15 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |