Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.8% vs Novak 43.4% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 62.1%
Defensive zone
McLeod 93.9%
Neutral zone
McLeod 83.1%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
McLeod
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McLeod
Novak
Last 7: McLeod 6-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
0
McLeod
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
0
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (796)
41.4% (379)
+7.8%
Power Play
44.8% (87)
46.9% (32)
-2.1%
On even strength, McLeod has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
McLeod shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
McLeod
Novak
Home
49.2% (575)
42.6% (195)
Away
45.9% (571)
41.2% (216)
By Period
McLeod
Novak
P1
52.8%
42.4%
P2
45.1%
39.2%
P3
45.6%
44.7%
OT
35.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:47 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 04:13 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |