Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 49.6% vs Novak 43.3% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 56.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 86.1%
Neutral zone
McLeod 66.1%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
McLeod
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
McLeod
Novak
Last 10: McLeod 7-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
McLeod
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
2
McLeod
Novak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McLeod
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (3,345)
42.1% (1,539)
+8.3%
Power Play
51.0% (292)
51.9% (133)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (635)
50.0% (2)
-5.7%
On even strength, McLeod has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
McLeod shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
McLeod
Novak
Home
50.2% (2,158)
45.3% (814)
Away
48.9% (2,114)
40.6% (860)
By Period
McLeod
Novak
P1
50.8%
43.9%
P2
48.4%
42.8%
P3
50.0%
41.7%
OT
37.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.7%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:47 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 04:13 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 04:53 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:22 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 13:38 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |