Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 71.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 74.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.8%
28.2%
71.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Last 5: Nugent-Hopkins 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
4
0
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (231)
55.3% (815)
-7.7%
Power Play
83.3% (12)
58.0% (219)
+25.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (21)
49.2% (124)
-15.9%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (164)
55.8% (579)
Away
43.0% (100)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
57.5%
P2
46.2%
54.7%
P3
49.5%
54.1%
OT
0.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |