Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 50.7% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 73.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 52.9%
Neutral zone
Carter 56.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Carter
O'Reilly
Last 6: Carter 1-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carter
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Carter
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Carter
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (565)
52.5% (1,177)
-1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (188)
54.6% (130)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
52.8% (108)
-2.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (509).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
52.3% (421)
54.9% (669)
Away
49.0% (353)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
55.4%
52.4%
P2
49.1%
56.1%
P3
47.6%
49.8%
OT
58.8%
57.7%
Final 5 min
52.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
50.8%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2011 | OT | 03:52 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 2 | 09:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 1 | 13:06 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |