Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 51.8% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 71.4%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 64.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Carter
O'Reilly
Last 10: Carter 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Carter
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Carter
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,137)
57.9% (1,179)
-4.5%
Power Play
48.7% (154)
63.0% (292)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (124)
53.8% (320)
-11.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (964).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
54.8% (753)
61.3% (884)
Away
48.6% (662)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
52.8%
55.5%
P2
53.0%
61.0%
P3
49.9%
56.8%
OT
53.3%
67.7%
Final 5 min
49.9%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.9%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 12:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 18:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 01:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 17:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |