Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 54.6% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 65.4%
Defensive zone
Carter 64.6%
Neutral zone
Carter 65.3%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carter
O'Reilly
Last 8: Carter 2-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carter
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Carter
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (307)
60.3% (1,517)
-7.2%
Power Play
62.5% (64)
61.5% (387)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
70.4% (27)
55.0% (220)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (282).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
58.9% (285)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
47.8% (113)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
54.9%
56.8%
P2
57.5%
64.6%
P3
56.0%
58.5%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.8%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 13:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 09:06 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 00:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 00:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 16:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |