Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 63.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 60.1% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 90.5%
Defensive zone
Carter 62.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 73.0%
27.0%
73.0%
Carter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Carter
O'Reilly
Last 6: Carter 2-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Carter
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
2
0
Carter
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
65.6% (262)
55.0% (1,084)
+10.6%
Power Play
68.3% (63)
56.8% (303)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (99)
40.3% (149)
+10.2%
On power play, Carter has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Carter is 63.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Carter shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Carter
O'Reilly
Home
64.3% (207)
54.8% (759)
Away
60.8% (217)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Carter
O'Reilly
P1
65.3%
55.3%
P2
60.1%
51.9%
P3
63.8%
54.2%
OT
40.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
65.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |