Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 45.3% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 74.4%
Defensive zone
Rossi 66.9%
Neutral zone
Rossi 68.4%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Rossi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rossi
O'Reilly
Last 5: Rossi 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Rossi
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Rossi
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (701)
55.0% (1,084)
-10.5%
Power Play
56.1% (41)
56.8% (303)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
40.3% (149)
-40.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rossi is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Rossi shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Rossi
O'Reilly
Home
46.8% (385)
54.8% (759)
Away
42.6% (364)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Rossi
O'Reilly
P1
42.8%
55.3%
P2
43.9%
51.9%
P3
47.4%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
37.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
44.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |