Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Rossi on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rossi wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 47.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 88.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 67.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 75.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.5%
25.5%
74.5%
Rossi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Rossi
O'Reilly
Last 9: Rossi 7-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
1
0
Rossi
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
3
0
Rossi
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
3
2
Rossi
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (879)
56.2% (983)
-9.7%
Power Play
48.6% (105)
55.5% (254)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
52.0% (102)
-2.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rossi is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Rossi shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Rossi
O'Reilly
Home
47.5% (520)
56.2% (697)
Away
46.0% (472)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Rossi
O'Reilly
P1
47.8%
54.5%
P2
44.2%
55.5%
P3
48.7%
57.1%
OT
45.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:28 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 03:19 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |