Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +18.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stone wins 34.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stone 47.7% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-18.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stone 78.3%
Defensive zone
Stone 65.3%
Neutral zone
Stone 74.6%
Result
Mark Stone favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Stone
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stone
O'Reilly
Last 5: Stone 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stone
1
0
Stone
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Stone
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Stone
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stone
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
37.0% (27)
58.6% (841)
-21.6%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
59.9% (207)
+6.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stone is 34.8% vs left-shot opponents (23).
Stone shoots right. O'Reilly is 64.4% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Stone
O'Reilly
Home
45.0% (20)
59.8% (594)
Away
30.0% (10)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Stone
O'Reilly
P1
35.3%
61.7%
P2
37.5%
56.2%
P3
60.0%
59.5%
Final 5 min
75.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stone
34.0%▼
38.0%
40.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 01:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Mark Stone |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 08:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |