Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Coyle wins 55.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Carrick 53.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 77.8%
Defensive zone
Coyle 73.2%
Neutral zone
Coyle 74.4%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Coyle
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Coyle
Carrick
Last 6: Coyle 1-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Coyle
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
Coyle
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (576)
53.8% (654)
-4.3%
Power Play
54.2% (48)
0.0% (2)
+54.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (145)
63.9% (36)
-20.5%
On power play, Coyle has a +54.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Coyle is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Coyle shoots right. Carrick is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Coyle
Carrick
Home
47.4% (409)
50.0% (328)
Away
50.0% (360)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Coyle
Carrick
P1
50.8%
56.7%
P2
46.0%
51.1%
P3
48.4%
54.8%
Final 5 min
46.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2025 | 3 | 11:54 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:38 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 01:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |