Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stastny wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 56.3% vs Carrick 49.5% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 84.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 71.6%
Neutral zone
Stastny 55.0%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Stastny
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stastny
Carrick
Last 7: Stastny 4-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
0
Stastny
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Stastny
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (412)
49.2% (307)
+8.3%
Power Play
60.0% (65)
66.7% (6)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
48.2% (56)
-3.8%
On even strength, Stastny has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Stastny is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Stastny shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Stastny
Carrick
Home
58.3% (276)
50.3% (175)
Away
56.7% (210)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Stastny
Carrick
P1
63.7%
41.0%
P2
57.3%
51.2%
P3
50.4%
55.3%
Final 5 min
56.0%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |