Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Carrick wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.7% vs Ostapchuk 49.0% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ostapchuk 53.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 88.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 84.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 85.2%
85.2%
14.8%
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Last 6: Carrick 4-2 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
3
2
Carrick
Ostapchuk
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (654)
48.3% (271)
+5.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
25.0% (4)
-25.0%
Penalty Kill
63.9% (36)
71.4% (7)
-7.5%
On power play, Ostapchuk has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Carrick shoots right. Ostapchuk is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (95).
Home / Away
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Home
50.0% (328)
49.3% (140)
Away
58.0% (364)
47.9% (142)
By Period
Carrick
Ostapchuk
P1
56.7%
49.1%
P2
51.1%
48.9%
P3
54.8%
47.5%
Final 5 min
48.8%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 02:34 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:04 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 09:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |