Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.8% vs Ostapchuk 50.2% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ostapchuk 58.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 60.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.4%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Carrick
Ostapchuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (439)
51.7% (300)
+3.4%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
33.3% (3)
+33.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (53)
43.6% (55)
+5.5%
On power play, Carrick has a +33.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Carrick shoots right. Ostapchuk is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Home
58.2% (225)
49.1% (161)
Away
51.5% (270)
51.3% (197)
By Period
Carrick
Ostapchuk
P1
56.7%
50.0%
P2
52.8%
45.7%
P3
54.4%
55.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |