Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 49.7% vs Karlsson 51.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 80.8%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 54.5%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 66.7%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Lafferty
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Lafferty
Karlsson
Last 5: Lafferty 4-1 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
4
0
Lafferty
Karlsson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Lafferty
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (204)
52.9% (719)
-1.4%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
53.5% (101)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (20)
45.2% (126)
-10.2%
On power play, Karlsson has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Lafferty is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Lafferty shoots right. Karlsson is 58.0% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Karlsson
Home
49.2% (124)
54.1% (547)
Away
50.0% (112)
48.9% (399)
By Period
Lafferty
Karlsson
P1
48.9%
49.5%
P2
48.1%
53.2%
P3
51.6%
52.3%
OT
100.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
43.5%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
49.6%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 14:31 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 14:04 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 02:22 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |