Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Lafferty wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 43.9% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 58.0%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 54.4%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 52.1%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Lafferty
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Lafferty
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Lafferty
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Lafferty
Karlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
0
Lafferty
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
42.6% (324)
56.3% (739)
-13.7%
Power Play
31.3% (16)
58.6% (181)
-27.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
47.2% (53)
-3.4%
On power play, Karlsson has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Lafferty shoots right. Karlsson is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Karlsson
Home
40.9% (181)
56.5% (462)
Away
43.4% (175)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Lafferty
Karlsson
P1
42.2%
57.1%
P2
36.4%
55.2%
P3
48.6%
56.7%
Final 5 min
37.2%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 04:13 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:36 | Offensive | William Karlsson |