Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Zary wins 37.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 41.1% vs Steel 52.8% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 84.9%
Defensive zone
Zary 52.0%
Neutral zone
Zary 72.3%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Zary
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Zary
Steel
Last 5: Zary 1-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Zary
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
3
Zary
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (205)
56.9% (320)
-20.3%
Power Play
41.7% (36)
71.4% (7)
-29.7%
On power play, Steel has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Zary is 37.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Zary shoots left. Steel is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Zary
Steel
Home
38.8% (152)
55.9% (202)
Away
34.8% (89)
51.0% (198)
By Period
Zary
Steel
P1
33.3%
55.5%
P2
31.7%
55.1%
P3
47.5%
50.3%
Final 5 min
32.7%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
37.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 12:01 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:14 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Sam Steel |