Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Couturier 53.2% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 70.9%
Defensive zone
Couturier 71.0%
Neutral zone
Couturier 79.0%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 73.9%
26.1%
73.9%
Nelson
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Nelson
Couturier
Last 8: Nelson 6-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Couturier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Couturier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
53.8% (1,003)
-7.7%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
56.4% (202)
-21.9%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
42.7% (89)
-12.3%
On power play, Couturier has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Couturier is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
Nelson
Couturier
Home
48.7% (419)
54.4% (680)
Away
41.3% (368)
52.4% (614)
By Period
Nelson
Couturier
P1
44.6%
56.3%
P2
47.3%
51.8%
P3
43.0%
52.2%
OT
100.0%
60.9%
Final 5 min
39.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 14:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 18:41 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |