Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Couturier 53.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 62.9%
Defensive zone
Couturier 50.9%
Neutral zone
Couturier 60.6%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Pavelski
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Pavelski
Couturier
Last 8: Pavelski 5-3 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
Pavelski
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
53.8% (1,003)
-2.3%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
56.4% (202)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
42.7% (89)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Couturier is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Couturier
Home
53.1% (339)
54.4% (680)
Away
49.2% (356)
52.4% (614)
By Period
Pavelski
Couturier
P1
53.8%
56.3%
P2
47.8%
51.8%
P3
50.2%
52.2%
OT
71.4%
60.9%
Final 5 min
48.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2023 | OT | 02:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2023 | OT | 01:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |