Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 53.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 76.8%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 55.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Stepan
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Stepan
Kuraly
Last 10: Stepan 3-7 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Stepan
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Stepan
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Stepan
Kuraly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
52.3% (982)
+2.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
41.9% (43)
-41.9%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
39.2% (245)
+25.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Kuraly is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (411).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kuraly
Home
54.5% (222)
50.3% (680)
Away
57.2% (222)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Stepan
Kuraly
P1
57.5%
49.5%
P2
54.7%
49.6%
P3
55.9%
49.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 15:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 01:21 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |