Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuraly wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 49.7% vs Johnston 44.8% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 62.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 95.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 85.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 91.2%
91.2%
8.8%
Kuraly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Kuraly
Johnston
Last 5: Kuraly 5-0 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
0
Kuraly
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
0
Kuraly
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (901)
42.5% (318)
+6.7%
Power Play
68.2% (22)
55.6% (9)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (219)
62.5% (8)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Kuraly is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (378).
Kuraly shoots left. Johnston is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (229).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Johnston
Home
51.7% (603)
40.5% (168)
Away
47.3% (539)
46.1% (167)
By Period
Kuraly
Johnston
P1
50.9%
46.9%
P2
49.5%
40.4%
P3
49.1%
41.9%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.9%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 03:06 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 07:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |