Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Monahan 54.5% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 54.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 54.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 54.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Pavelski
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Pavelski
Monahan
Last 9: Pavelski 3-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Monahan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
Pavelski
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Pavelski
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
57.1% (871)
-5.6%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
53.1% (262)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
44.6% (139)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Monahan
Home
53.1% (339)
55.3% (644)
Away
49.2% (356)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Pavelski
Monahan
P1
53.8%
53.9%
P2
47.8%
55.3%
P3
50.2%
54.4%
OT
71.4%
76.5%
Final 5 min
48.6%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 13:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 04:14 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |