Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carpenter wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 44.1% vs Monahan 52.4% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 54.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 91.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 75.2%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Carpenter
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carpenter
Monahan
Last 8: Carpenter 2-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Carpenter
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Carpenter
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
3
Carpenter
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (474)
52.1% (858)
-5.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
55.9% (177)
-27.3%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (129)
33.3% (9)
-0.7%
On power play, Monahan has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Carpenter shoots right. Monahan is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (361).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Monahan
Home
46.5% (303)
52.6% (504)
Away
39.7% (307)
52.6% (540)
By Period
Carpenter
Monahan
P1
44.2%
56.7%
P2
40.4%
52.1%
P3
44.2%
48.1%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 12:44 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 09:24 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |