Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Monahan wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Novak 43.4% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 58.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 82.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 76.9%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
Monahan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Monahan
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (823)
41.4% (379)
+11.8%
Power Play
55.3% (159)
46.9% (32)
+8.4%
On even strength, Monahan has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Monahan shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Monahan
Novak
Home
54.6% (529)
42.6% (195)
Away
51.6% (548)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Monahan
Novak
P1
49.0%
42.4%
P2
55.4%
39.2%
P3
53.6%
44.7%
OT
61.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.0%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |