Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.3% vs Novak 43.3% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 88.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 94.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 93.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 93.2%
93.2%
6.8%
Monahan
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Monahan
Novak
Last 6: Monahan 6-0 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
0
Monahan
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,356)
42.1% (1,539)
+9.0%
Power Play
53.7% (2,580)
51.9% (133)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (766)
50.0% (2)
-4.0%
On even strength, Monahan has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Monahan shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Monahan
Novak
Home
52.4% (7,358)
45.3% (814)
Away
50.2% (7,344)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Monahan
Novak
P1
50.9%
43.9%
P2
51.7%
42.8%
P3
51.0%
41.7%
OT
53.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.3%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 09:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |