Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 49.6% vs Aho 51.2% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 56.6%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 60.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 56.0%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Rodrigues
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Rodrigues
Aho
Last 9: Rodrigues 4-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Rodrigues
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
0
Rodrigues
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (180)
48.5% (778)
+5.9%
Power Play
32.0% (25)
63.4% (191)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
36.1% (36)
50.8% (65)
-14.7%
On power play, Aho has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Rodrigues is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Rodrigues shoots right. Aho is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Aho
Home
47.9% (119)
51.3% (530)
Away
50.8% (122)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Rodrigues
Aho
P1
53.8%
50.0%
P2
51.9%
51.3%
P3
43.2%
52.1%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
49.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 15:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 08:24 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |