Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.0% vs Novak 43.4% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 51.9%
Defensive zone
Aho 55.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Aho
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Aho
Novak
Last 10: Aho 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
5
Aho
Novak
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
2
Aho
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
1
Aho
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (851)
41.4% (379)
+8.5%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
46.9% (32)
+6.6%
On even strength, Aho has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Aho shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Aho
Novak
Home
53.2% (554)
42.6% (195)
Away
46.5% (501)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Aho
Novak
P1
49.1%
42.4%
P2
50.8%
39.2%
P3
49.7%
44.7%
OT
58.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:03 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 17:52 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 03:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |