Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.2% vs Novak 43.3% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 15-10 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 84.4%
Defensive zone
Aho 85.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 81.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Aho
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
10
(25 meetings)
15
10
Aho
Novak
Last 10: Aho 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
5
6
Aho
Novak
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
5
2
Aho
Novak
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
5
2
Aho
Novak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (6,619)
42.1% (1,539)
+8.0%
Power Play
58.9% (1,310)
51.9% (133)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (464)
50.0% (2)
-3.7%
On even strength, Aho has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Aho shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Aho
Novak
Home
52.4% (4,308)
45.3% (814)
Away
50.1% (4,085)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Aho
Novak
P1
51.1%
43.9%
P2
52.0%
42.8%
P3
50.7%
41.7%
OT
48.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:03 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 17:52 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 03:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:50 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |